New Energy Mix for 2030 in Ireland

Minister Ryan recently announced new targets to achieve an 80% renewable generation mix in 2030. The new mix is: 9GW of onshore wind, 8 GW of solar and at least 7 GW of off-shore wind by 2030. To assess whether this mix was optimum, I simulated the outcome with this mix in 2030 assuming an expected demand of 53.3 TWhs over the year. By optimum, I mean whether the portfolio of renewable generation represents a good trade off between the best available generation for the lowest level of power intermittency. I used a standard Markowitz model approach to assess the portfolio. The modelling to build and verify the solutions is done using data at hourly intervals (3 years for demand and 39 years for weather). The results are shown below:

As you can see the planned proportionate mix is on the efficient frontier (it represents a good trade off between risk and return). It only remains to be seen if this solution can deliver the 80% renewable target.

The modelling suggests that this would give us a 72% renewable supply mix (assuming the network can maintain frequency and circumvent contention). That assumes completion of the Celtic interconnector and that the new pumped hydro station comes on line. Storage can help a little but we are still a distance off of 80%.